In recent months, Ukraine has intensified its attacks on Russian oil refineries, leading to fuel shortages and rising prices in some regions of the Russian Federation. Since the beginning of 2025, 21 out of 38 major Russian facilities that process crude oil into fuels such as gasoline and diesel have been hit. The number of successful strikes is already 48% higher than in the whole of 2024.
After refinery attacks, lines at gas stations in Russia are growing – that’s a fact
An analysis of Russian media and verified video footage by BBC Verify shows that the number of drone strikes on refineries – some located deep inside Russian territory – surged in August and remained high in September.
It appears that ordinary Russians are beginning to feel the effects: videos confirmed by the BBC show long lines at gas stations. Some stations decided to suspend operations “to wait out the crisis” rather than sell fuel at a loss, Russian media reported, citing an industry manager.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly stressed that weakening Russia’s oil sector is a key tool for forcing Moscow to negotiate. “The most effective sanctions are those that work the fastest – fires at Russia’s refineries, terminals, and fuel depots. We have significantly reduced its oil industry, and with it – its ability to wage war,” he said in a September address.
Read too: Andrei Kuzichkin: Russian Propaganda vs. NATO. Who in the West Supports Putin? [ANALYSIS]
14 refineries hit in a single month
According to BBC Verify, August 2025 saw a record number of attacks – Ukrainian drones struck 14 refineries, followed by another eight in September. This surge came after a brief pause coinciding with heightened diplomatic efforts, when Donald Trump attempted to broker a ceasefire deal between Kyiv and Moscow.
Some strikes targeted facilities hundreds of kilometers from Ukraine. At the end of September, the SBU successfully attacked the “Gazprom Neftekhim Salavat” refinery in Bashkortostan twice.
Satellite images showed plumes of smoke rising over the plant located more than 1,100 km from the border. Ukraine also struck some of Russia’s most profitable refineries: the plant near Volgograd was hit six times this year alone, and after the August strike it had to suspend operations for a month. The large refinery in Ryazan has been targeted five times since January.
Ukraine’s General Staff reported that refineries in Samara and Saratov are used for military logistics. In recent weeks, drones struck both regions, forcing two out of three plants in the Samara region to halt production.
Justin Crump, a former British Army officer and CEO of the consultancy Sibylline, told the BBC that Ukraine has long targeted Russia’s oil and gas sector. However, he noted that the current wave of attacks shows the military and intelligence services have turned this tactic into a “main campaign.” “It has become the subject of serious investment and is directed based on intelligence assessments of where Russia can be hurt the most,” Crump said.
What real impact do the refinery attacks have on Russia’s economy?
The scale of the impact on gasoline and diesel production remains difficult to measure, as Russia in May 2024 classified fuel production data after an earlier wave of strikes.
However, BBC Verify found that since August, at least ten refineries were forced to partially or fully suspend operations. Reuters reported that on some days, national output dropped by as much as 20%.
There is evidence that civilians across Russia are feeling the effects. Verified videos showed queues at gas stations in the Far East and along the highway linking St. Petersburg with Moscow. In occupied Crimea, rationing of gasoline was introduced by Kremlin-appointed local authorities.
Owners of small, independent gas stations in Siberia told Russian media they had to close due to chronic supply problems. One businessman from Novosibirsk Oblast compared the current situation to the hyperinflation of the early 1990s. “In my opinion, we haven’t had a crisis like this since 1993–1994. Many stations are not operating now. It’s better to wait it out than to run at a loss,” he told the local outlet Precedent TV.
Read too: 2026 Russian Budget: Kremlin to Spend Less on the Military, More on Propaganda
Fuel prices in Russia are rising, but…
Although fuel prices in Russia traditionally rise in summer, when travel increases and refineries undergo maintenance, drone strikes have deepened the problem. Retail prices have soared, and wholesale prices – at which retailers buy from producers – have risen by as much as 40% since January.
State-controlled Russian media insist that drones are a key reason for the shortages. Kommersant directly linked them to “unplanned refinery shutdowns.” Yet in western Russia – including the Moscow and Krasnodar regions – residents did not experience serious problems. Some even said they were unaware of shortages elsewhere in the country. Reports of problems caused by Ukrainian strikes may therefore also be part of a Kremlin disinformation tactic, shifting blame for the weakening economy onto external factors rather than Russia’s own ruinous war against Ukraine.
Russian officials also maintain that the situation is under control. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said at a briefing that “the government is taking all necessary measures to counter the crisis.” Meanwhile, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak announced last week an extension of the partial ban on gasoline exports until the end of 2025. However, opposition politician Vladimir Milov argued that this measure is minor and “will not save the domestic market.”
It is also unclear to what extent the attacks affect Moscow’s ability to use oil revenues to fund its war against Ukraine. Most of Russia’s exports are crude oil, which has not been impacted by the strikes. According to Bloomberg’s analysis at the end of September, crude exports reached a record level – although they are less profitable than gasoline and diesel sales.
Crump emphasized that the impact could be stronger if the West imposed “additional sanctions” on Russian oil exports. Still, he noted that even now the campaign is weakening Moscow’s ability to wage war. “It will not bring Russia to its knees on its own, but it certainly adds to the costs of a prolonged conflict,” he said.
Source: BBC Verify.
What is PostPravda.Info?
PostPravda.Info is a project launched in February 2024 to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation. It was created by experts from several countries: Poland, Ukraine, the USA, the UK, and Lithuania. The project is funded by the international UA Future Foundation.
