Ukraine is steadily losing territory near Kursk in Russia. According to experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Moscow is preparing a counteroffensive in the coming days to drive Ukrainian forces off Russian soil for good. How effective could this strategy be? An analysis by Piotr Kaszuwara sheds light on the situation.
Russian Gains Near Kursk
Recent Russian successes near Kursk indicate that the Kremlin is taking the recapture of Sudzha and the rest of its territory—invaded by Ukraine in August 2024—seriously. This territory was intended to be a bargaining chip for Kyiv in potential peace negotiations.
In the past week, Russian forces have reclaimed a significant portion of the occupied area, forcing Ukrainian troops to retreat. They’ve managed to wedge themselves between Ukrainian positions near the border, effectively cutting off Ukrainian logistics in the region. Russian forces are consolidating their gains in Kursk Oblast and are likely preparing for an attack on Sudzha in the coming days, ISW warns.
Chechen and North Korean Forces Assist Near Kursk Region
There is a growing risk that if Kyiv doesn’t pull back quickly, it could lose significant equipment and personnel, with Ukrainian troops potentially becoming encircled. Estimates suggest that tens of thousands of Ukrainians are fighting in Kursk Oblast. In addition to its regular army, Russia has reportedly involved North Korean forces and Chechens from the Akhmat unit in the counteroffensive, according to ISW.
ISW reports that footage published on March 10 shows Russian forces advancing in central Martynovka (northeast of Sudzha). Elements of Russia’s 44th Army Corps (Leningrad Military District) and the 1434th “Akhmat-Chechnya” Regiment (subordinated to the Russian Ministry of Defense) are reportedly attacking near Martynovka.
Russian military bloggers claim that Russian forces have seized Agronom and Kolmakov (both east of Sudzha), Mikhailovka (northeast of Sudzha), and Bogdanovka (north of Sudzha). According to them, Kremlin forces have also made gains in Mirny (east of Sudzha) and Kazachya Loknya (north of Sudzha), though ISW has not confirmed these claims.
The so-called “war correspondents” further report that elements of Russia’s 40th Naval Infantry Brigade (Pacific Fleet), 177th Naval Infantry Regiment (Caspian Flotilla), and 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet), as well as up to two battalions of North Korean forces, are involved in the counteroffensive near Kurilovka and Guyevo.
Ukraine Retreats Near Kursk Region
Ukraine has already withdrawn some of its units from deep inside Russia, including special forces, replacing them with drone and electronic warfare units.
Ukrainian forces are counterattacking along the border. On March 10, Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated that Ukraine is reinforcing its combat group in the Kursk and Sumy Oblasts with additional drone and electronic warfare units. He also mentioned that Ukrainian forces are effectively countering the threat of Russian encirclement.
Ukrainian Border Guard Service Spokesperson Andriy Demchenko reported that Ukrainian forces are working to repel Russian attacks in the direction of Novenke and Zhuravka (both northeast of Sumy) and noted that Russian forces are attempting to cut Ukraine’s main communication line along the H-07 highway between Sumy and Sudzha.
Unofficial sources suggest that one of the key factors enabling Russia’s significant progress in such a short time was the U.S. decision to withhold intelligence and certain types of weaponry from Ukraine, including long-range missiles and HIMARS rocket systems.
