Elections in Ukraine, both presidential and parliamentary, could be one of the elements of Donald Trump’s peace plan, according to sources such as Radio Free Europe. In an interview with Reuters, General Keith Kellogg, the U.S. special representative for Ukraine, stated that America expects elections to take place in Ukraine by the end of this year, even suggesting that they could be held even if the war has not ended. But is this possible?
Elections in Ukraine during the war would be illegal
Ukrainian law, similar to the law in Poland, prohibits holding elections during states of emergency, including martial law. Martial law in Ukraine was introduced on the day of the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, and has been repeatedly extended since then.
According to Donald Trump’s administration, this should not be an obstacle, as “history shows that even during World War II, there were countries that allowed people to go to the polls.” This includes the United States, where, as we know, no battles were fought during World War II.
“Most democracies hold elections even during war. I believe it’s important. I believe it’s good for democracy. That’s the beauty of a strong democracy, when more than one person can participate in an election,” General Kellogg was quoted by Reuters.
Candidates in the Ukrainian Elections
Holding elections in Ukraine is one of the key demands that the Kremlin is pushing in its conditions for a ceasefire. According to Moscow, the government in Ukraine lost its legitimacy when the terms of the president and parliament expired last year. The issues of voting security in frontline cities, the secrecy and legality of voting in occupied territories, as well as the participation of military personnel and the millions of Ukrainians who left the country since 2022, remain open questions.
Reuters quoted an anonymous former Western official who believes that lifting martial law in Ukraine and announcing elections would destabilize the country, as mobilized soldiers would leave the ranks of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and conscription-age men would “flee abroad.” Additionally, it would weaken the power and influence of President Zelensky, whose support in the country has significantly decreased. Meanwhile, strong political opponents are emerging, such as former President Petro Poroshenko and Oleksiy Arestovych, who is also considered a potential candidate in the next race for the presidency.
Elections in Ukraine and Kremlin’s Demands
The American Institute for the Study of War (ISW) recently reported that undermining the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government is part of a Kremlin operation aimed at negating future peace agreements. Putin indicated that he would not consider any agreements binding as long as the Ukrainian president’s decree banning negotiations with Russia is in effect. However, even if Ukraine agrees to repeal these provisions, experts believe Putin would likely find new reasons to violate the agreements. ISW emphasized that the Kremlin is creating its own legal foundations to ignore future agreements by manipulating false interpretations of Ukrainian legislation.
President Volodymyr Zelensky, addressing these issues, stated that elections in Ukraine will take place, but only after a ceasefire and after receiving firm guarantees that hostilities will not resume in the future. Experts cited by the BBC estimate that after martial law is lifted, Ukraine would need 3 to 6 months to organize elections.
