In Lithuania, the so-called Hungarian scenario is impossible – society will not accept pro-Russian government. However, there are subtle nuances that, if unnoticed by public opinion, can be used to the Kremlin’s advantage.
“Do you believe that NATO will defend Lithuania if the territory will be attacked? – It certainly will not defend in such a large volume. I was the head of the NATO delegation and I know that Article 5 has never worked and cannot work. This was shown during the conflict between Turkey and Greece a few years ago.” “Do you think Russia is a threat to Lithuania? – I do not see Russia as a threat. I see Russian politicians, some oligarchs, who through their actions, finances and attempts to bribe politicians around the world, are a threat to us.”
Elections in Lithuania. Does Žemaitaitis’ party pose a threat?
These are the words of the leader of the “Dawn of the Neman” party, Remigijus Žemaitaitis. “Dawn of the Neman” won 20 seats in the parliament in the last parliamentary elections and became the third force in the country. “Dawn of the Neman” will also co-create the new ruling coalition. Remigijus Žemaitaitis became famous for his anti-Semitic statements in 2023. In response to the Israeli authorities’ demolition of a school in the territory of the Palestinian Authority, the politician quoted a Lithuanian folk anti-Semitic proverb on his social media profile, which includes words calling for the killing of Jewish people. The politician’s statement was met with sharp criticism not only within Lithuania, but also abroad. Criticism was expressed by, among others, the embassies of Israel and Germany. Fearing impeachment, which would prevent him from further participation in politics, Žemaitaitis resigned from his parliamentary mandate. Surprisingly, instead of being marginalized, his popularity began to grow. In 2024, he founded a new party – “Dawn of the Neman,” and ran in the presidential elections, finishing on the fourth place. Fifth place was taken by a doctor from Kaunas, Edurdas Vaitkus, who openly called NATO an “aggressive alliance” responsible for provoking the war in Ukraine.
Before the first round of elections to the Parliament, the growing popularity of the “Dawn of the Neman” started to worry politicians and mainstream media. The leader of the Social Democrats, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, who was the favourite in the election race, was forced to declare that there would be no coalition with the “Dawn of the Neman.” After the first round, when the final number of seats in the Parliament was not known, the possibility of entering a coalition with Žemaitaitis’ party was once again considered. The presidential center, which supports the creation of a new center-left coalition, sent a signal with the words of the advisor to the president, Frederikas Jansonas, that there could be future ruling coalition with the “Dawn of the Neman” party. – After the first round, Žemaitaitis’ rhetoric began to change. The politician at least tries to explain what he said – the advisor declared. The Social Democrats did not rule out such a possibility either.
Kremlin projects
A well-known Lithuanian analyst of security and eastern policy, Marius Laurinavičius, claims that “Dawn of the Neman” can be considered aa a Kremlin project even though Žemaitaitis’ statements lack an openly pro-Russian narratives. He emphasizes that the term “Russian project” does not mean the Kremlin’s direct involvement or the implementation of its guidelines by the party leadership. The Kremlin rather monitors the situation through analysis based on which political forces in Lithuania are more favorable to Russia. If such a group emerges, Moscow can support it with information without establishing direct contacts. “We must understand that during the last election campaign, Russia’s goal was not to seize power, but to spread the Kremlin narrative on an unprecedented scale. All media, including the public broadcaster, featured content favorable to Russia,” Laurinavičius told PostPravda.info.
He adds that more “Russian projects” ran in this year’s Lithuanian parliamentary elections. He includes the “Peace Coalition” of Russian-speaking oligarch Viktor Uspaskich, and the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania – Union of Christian Families, which advocated for peace with neighbors and repairing relations with Belarus. Among the groups pursuing a favorable policy towards Moscow is also the Union of Peasants and Greens, headed by another millionaire, Ramūnas Karbauskis. According to Laurinavičius, Karbauskis has always been characterized by an anti-Western attitude (he once proposed organizing a referendum on joining NATO), and his business entities conducted numerous business in Russia until 2022.
Special Services Report
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Lithuania has sided with Ukraine without any “buts.” Each year, the special services responsible for national security – the Department of State Security and the Second Department of Operational Services of the Ministry of National Defense – publish report entitled “Assessment of Threats to National Security”. – Russia’s war against Ukraine has weakened the positions of pro-Russian political and social movements in Lithuania. The absolute majority of Lithuanians see Russia as a threat to Lithuania’s national security. The Russian propaganda narrative about the war in Ukraine is supported by several percent of Lithuanian society – we read in the document from 2024.
Political scientist and head of the Statehood Center of the National Library of Lithuania Matas Baltrukevičius may not be 100 percent, but he agrees with the conclusions of the report. – We had Edurdas Vaitkus, who had a good result during the presidential elections. He claimed that NATO is an aggressive alliance of states. We had the “Peace Coalition”, which claimed that we must be friends and live in peace with neighboring countries. These political entities failed during the elections. The war in Ukraine has a big impact on social views in our country. In the West, it may not be as noticeable, but for us it is an important factor that shapes public opinion. Obviously with every election, one or two political forces appears that puts forward an alternative statements to the majority of society. It is difficult to say to what extent these are sincere views of specific politicians or an attempt to mobilise the electorate. It seems to me that if the Kremlin invests in someone, it is rather to be a serious figure with a direct influence on state policy. When we look at the statements of Eduardas Vaitkus, we see more of a pro-Russian caricature than a real politician. I am not sure whether it is worth it for the Kremlin to invest in such an activist. It seems that Vaitkus was simply expressing his own position, which he absolutely believes in, believes Matas Baltrukevičius. The political scientist does not rule out the existence of certain pro-Russian circles that want to destabilise the country. As their marginal influence on public sentiment indicates, their activities are more likely to merit a reaction from the secret services than from politicians or political scientists.
Crimea and the Independence in Lithuania
Laurinavicius shares a similar opinion. – Speaking about Lithuanian society, open support for Russia is not strong. In the face of the war in Ukraine, there is no room for projects that openly support Russia. That is why all kinds of half-measures are used – the analyst emphasizes. He adds that it is worth analyzing not only the statements from the past election campaign, but the entire biography of the politician should be taken into account. – We should analyze Žemaitaitis’ previous statements. Perhaps not directly, but he supported the occupation of Crimea in 2014. He was also an opponent of sanctions against Russia. There were many more of these statements. He repeated them constantly – the interviewee emphasizes. In fact, in March 2014, the politician compared the “Crimean referendum” to Lithuania regaining independence in the early 1990s. – Legal issue: the Crimean parliament was legally elected. The new, interim president and the new government in Kiev did not revoke their powers. They did not announce new elections there. This means that this parliament has the full right to choose. It does the same, if you remember what our parliament did in 1990-92 – Žemaitaitis explained from the parliamentary rostrum.
From the words of both of our interlocutors, it follows that, regardless of the activities of certain groups in Lithuania, the so-called Hungarian scenario, even when the head of state is an absolutely pro-Russian politician, is impossible. According to Baltrukevičius, there is currently a consensus among the major political groups when it comes to the directions of foreign policy and security issues. – Of course, we hear statements from politicians of the Peasants’ Union or the “Dawn of the Neman” that financing security is not entirely correct, that we have to buy this particular weapon. However, this does not translate into a cardinal change in the state’s policy in this area. Everyone emphasizes that defense is important – the political scientist said.
– The Hungarian scenario is impossible for us. I don’t see any possibility that Lithuanian society will become pro-Russian even after 10 years. We have a different problem. According to my calculations, about 30 percent of society is ready to vote for pro-Russian political forces. I’m not saying that everyone who votes this way consciously supports Russia. The problem is that the views of this part of society are not changing. We had the same issue 10 years ago. What needs to be done to solve this problem? A lot. We are moving forward in some matters. Unfortunately, Russia spends billions to maintain its influence in the world. In the West, because the problem is not limited to Lithuania, we live in the belief that this problem will solve itself – adds Laurinavičius.
Weakening actions
Laurinavičius adds that although the so-called Hungarian scenario in Lithuania is impossible, pro-Russian forces can still have a negative impact on the country’s security. – The entry of pro-Russian forces into the Parliament or the ruling coalition does not mean that they will start to shape a policy openly favorable to the Kremlin. However, they can take small, almost imperceptible steps that weaken Lithuania. For example, they will vote against increasing defense funding. They will argue that this money would be better spent on social projects. Theoretically, such an explanation can hardly be accused of being pro-Russian. From Russia’s perspective, such actions are beneficial to it, because they generally weaken the Lithuanian state. It should be understood that the term “pro-Kremlin project” does not mean that the Kremlin has directly created this political force. They are simply watching us and see that the policies of certain groups are favorable to them, the analyst said.
Photo: lrv.lt
