Mass demonstrations have been ongoing in Georgia for last few weeks. Georgians have stood up to the Georgian Dream party as they are concerned for the state of democracy in their country. Will the Georgian Dream party make groundbreaking changes? Is Georgia changing course from the European Union to China? What influence does one of the richest men in the country, Bidzina Ivanishvili, have on the situation in the country? What will happen during the upcoming presidential elections in Georgia? Stasia Budzisz talks to Valery Chechelashvili, former Georgian ambassador to Russia and Ukraine and former Minister of Finance.

“If nothing changes in Georgia, we will become an appendage of Russia”

Stasia Budzisz: Mass protests have been ongoing in Georgia for 14 days. For about four days, Georgian Dream has changed its tactics against protesters and is no longer using brutal force: gas, water cannons, rubber bullets and batons. Recall that people took to the streets of cities and towns en masse after Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze said on November 28 that Georgia was suspending accession talks with the European Union and was withdrawing all forms of financing from it. As a result, over 400 people were detained within two weeks, of whom 300 were reportedly tortured in custody. Now the tactics have changed – the spetsnaz and police are present, but they do not move the protesters, which does not mean that they do not raid the private apartments and businesses of people who they believe pose a threat to the state. What happened?

Valery Chechelashvili: It is hard to say, because the members of Georgian Dream are extremely unpredictable. First, they seized warehouses with fireworks in Georgia with which the protesting crowd was repelling the services. Then they arrested representatives of the opposition and non-governmental organizations, whom they considered the leaders of the demonstration and announced that they no longer needed to use force, because after preventive measures the protest had become peaceful. This is how it looks officially. Unofficially, however, it is known that there are splits in the power structures. The water cannon operators left, the spetsnaz instructor responsible for the psychological preparation of the law enforcement agencies for the use of violence was beaten. Importantly, the training participants themselves beat him up. And the head of the operational planning department of the special tasks department, Irakli Shaishmelashvili, left his job. Nevertheless, the law enforcement agencies that commit street violence against protesters are very well trained. They number around 3-4 thousand people, who are additionally motivated by money. According to unofficial data, they receive around 900 lari (approx. 1300 PLN) per night, which is a lot of money. The average salary in Georgia is around 1250 lari (approx. 1800 PLN). However, there was social pressure, because the media published a list of names of people who contributed to the brutal dispersal of protesters. In Georgia, which is a small country with only 3.6 million inhabitants, it is a disgrace to the family, neighbors, and colleagues. It is hard to bear. That is why we are dealing with a schism and, consequently, an attempt to neutralize the tension by the authorities.

The fact that it is calm now does not mean much. People expect brutal scenes at specific moments. On December 14, when the new president is scheduled to be elected in non-universal elections but by the Electoral Commission. On December 16, when the European Commission will decide whether to impose sanctions on leading politicians of the Georgian Dream and will decide whether to suspend visa-free travel for Georgian citizens. And on December 29, when the new president is to be sworn in. Who is the man anointed by Bidzina Ivanishvili, whom he calls a “true Georgian”, Michael Kavelashvili?

A spit in the face of our entire nation. Kavelashvili was a great, but not top, footballer. However, he did not have the potential to become president of the Georgian Football Federation. One of the reasons it did not work out was the fact that he does not have a higher education. Now, instead, he is to become president of the country and represent us abroad. Little is known about him. Of course, he is a loyal subject of Bidzina Ivanishvili, one of those who founded the Power of the People party. This is a radical faction of the Georgian Dream, which emerged in 2022 and served the government to push through anti-Western laws. Kavelashvili is therefore behind, among other things, the draft law on so-called foreign agents.

The people demand a repeat of the parliamentary elections of October 26, which both President Salome Zurabishvili and the opposition, as well as representatives of the Western world, consider rigged. What are the chances that the Georgian Dream will make concessions?

There are practically none. Besides, it does not fit into their plans at all. However, I do not have enough imagination to predict what else they might come up with. I am also unable to say whether what they do is of their own free will or imposed from outside.

How important is Georgia to Europe?

Europe showed that we are important to it by giving us candidate status in December 2023. We received it conditionally. When in March 2022, together with Moldova and Ukraine, we submitted an application for the status, we did not receive it in the first wave. This was a punishment for ambivalent behavior towards Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine. In return, we received the so-called European perspective, which included 12 points for improvement. We were to carry out a number of reforms, including fighting the oligarchy, strengthening free media and civil society. Although we completed 9 of the 12 tasks, we still received the status. The ruling party did not expect this, but it turned it into its success anyway. However, immediately after this event, Georgian Dream decided to introduce a law on so-called foreign agents and anti-LGBTQIA, both modeled on Russian legislation. For the EU, Georgia is of strategic importance. It is a very important communication and transport hub that connects Europe with Azerbaijan and further Central Asia. Azerbaijani gas, for example, flows to the EU through our territory. Georgia is therefore important, but not so important that Europe puts its values ​​at stake for it. It will not allow a country into its ranks that could potentially block its decisions. Our politicians have stopped speaking the language of Europe.

However, if the Georgian Dream remains in power, will the European Union cooperate with it?

Of course, but on different terms than before. These relations will be based on specific interests, they will be similar to cooperation with Azerbaijan or Kyrgyzstan. This means that systemic economic aid will cease to flow from the EU, preferential loans will end, visa-free travel will be eliminated and the possibility of traveling to Europe for work will be limited. Georgia will also no longer be able to count on diplomatic support in the matter of recognizing the territories occupied by Russia – Abkhazia and the so-called South Ossetia. The EU will therefore cooperate with Georgia, but will not help it. Many people do not understand what changes will follow the interruption of accession negotiations. Nevertheless, Georgia has the right to withdraw from them, which it did. It is its sovereign right.

On the other hand, there is an increasing orientation towards China. In 2016, Georgia signed a memorandum on support for China’s Belt and Road Initiative, and in 2017, both countries signed a free trade agreement. In 2023, Georgia also signed a statement on a strategic partnership and announced the introduction of visa-free travel for Chinese citizens. It also launched direct flights between the countries. In recent years, China has received a number of contracts for road construction in Georgia, provided scanners for border crossings and customs points, and will now take over control of the construction of the deepest port in the Black Sea basin, in Anaklia. In Tbilisi, China has built a residential area, concluded an agreement with the government to manage a free trade zone in Kutaisi for 30 years, and scientific cooperation and a network of Confucius Institutes have begun to develop. Will China replace the European Union?

It seems that the Georgian Dream thinks that Chinese investments or Chinese loans can replace macroeconomic aid from Europe and its various financial institutions, including the International Monetary Fund. However, it is not that simple. The fundamental difference in the approach to partners is that the West cares about the development of a given country and in the future becomes a full-fledged and valuable partner with a stable economy, while neither China nor Russia cares about this. They only care about their own interests.

Can we give an example of European aid in Georgia?

An excellent one is something we call the “Batumi miracle”. When the city began to expand, in 2005, I was the Minister of Finance, so I am privy to the details of this investment. The problem in Batumi was with the city’s drinking water supply. Due to the fact that we were dealing with an old system there, the water did not reach the third floor at most. We knew that the equipment had to be restored. We signed an agreement with the EU, received money in two tranches, grants and cheap credit. We managed to modernize it and 40-story buildings began to be built. This was followed by a boom in tourism, from which Georgia draws 4 billion dollars annually. Batumi generates the lion’s share of this income. This is an example of an EU project focused on development and generating business opportunities.

The International Monetary Fund reports that 2024 is expected to bring a 7.6 percent increase in GDP. This means that Georgia is developing very quickly, estimated to be the sixth highest dynamics in the world. So maybe the decision of the Georgian Dream to turn away from the EU and look at China and Russia is the right one?

If we take into account only the dry numbers, this is undoubtedly true. However, the situation is much more complex.

China is pursuing a very pragmatic economic policy, which is aimed solely at strengthening its interests and presence in the region. In addition, Chinese loans have the characteristic that the country that accepts them partially deprives itself of its economic sovereignty. They do not care about our financial stability or economic growth. As for Russia, we cannot forget that this is a very political market and for this reason no one can give even the slightest guarantee of stability. We know perfectly well how it works in practice, because we have experienced more than once what an embargo imposed by the Russian side means. Economic dependence on Russia gives it the ability to manipulate and exert pressure. The decision to associate with them is shortsighted and very uncertain. So if our government voluntarily gives up money that could help us by the end of 2028, I do not know what to call such behavior. Perhaps they do not understand it.

Seriously?

If they understand, it means that they want to deliberately lead the country into a huge economic crisis. So if they manage to stay in power, Georgia will not only face a deep political crisis and political isolation, but also an economic one – a drop in the lari exchange rate, high inflation, famine. The Georgian Dream may not recover from this.

But if they stay in power and Georgia becomes an authoritarian state with subordinate institutions, gets rid of non-governmental organizations that watch over our hands, then what?

This is the worst possible scenario. If this happens, we will become an addition to Russia. At best, we will be like Kyrgyzstan, at worst like Belarus.

I would like to return to the issue of the strategic partnership that former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili signed with China. How does this document relate to the strategic partnership that was also signed with the US? Do they not interfere with each other?

It is impossible to combine one strategic partnership with another. China is following the path of global initiatives: partnership, security, and civilization. The only thing is that they do not coincide with the US vision of the world. So you cannot be a strategic partner here and there. It is as if during World War II a country was a strategic partner of Nazi Germany and the Allies. Unrealistic.

Former Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili was aware of this when he signed this document.

I don’t know, I don’t know the answer to this question. Maybe it was a strategy to deal with the risk that the EU would not grant us candidate status? Or maybe he thought that he could maneuver?

In the face of what is happening in Georgia now, the US has decided to suspend its strategic partnership with Georgia. Leading politicians are reassuring the public that this decision is of no importance, because on January 20, when Donald Trump takes office, everything will return to normal. What do you think about this?

I’m afraid I have bad news for the Georgian Dream. First of all, I don’t think Georgia is one of Trump‘s first 30 priorities. And secondly, he will not decide what to do with our country, he will ask his advisors. And representatives of both houses of Congress, I remind you, visited Georgia in August of this year and asked for a meeting with Bidzina Ivanishvili. He refused. I do not think that it will play to their advantage.

Let’s get back to the numbers. Since the outbreak of the full-scale war in Ukraine, Russia has become a more important market for Georgia than the EU. According to the IMF, it is developing faster than China. Can we say that the standard of living of Georgians has improved?

No. Yes, the economy is showing growth, but it is very exclusive and not distributed proportionally across society. Specific groups of people benefit from this, about 3 to 5 percent of the population. It is more expensive in stores than in Poland, the pension is 350 lari (510 PLN), and salaries are not rising either. Economic growth means that every member of society lives better, and this is not happening in Georgia. With the Russian relocators came “fast” money, but that time has passed. Now part of society earns money by bypassing sanctions. We export cars and parts for them there. Of course, we do not sell them directly to Russia. The goods are sent through Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Armenia. I recently did some calculations and it turned out that we sold so many cars to Kyrgyzstan that every Kyrgyz family should have four in stock. We import cars for about $200 million a year. Mainly from the US, EU, Taiwan and Hong Kong. The only thing is that the figures show sales for $10 million. This means that $190 million remains in the country, only they are not there.

What happens to them?

I don’t know, I have no evidence. Maybe they are contraband to Russia? However, this is also a very unstable situation, it could end at any moment. Then there could be a crisis and famine.

And what could the crisis lead to?

To anything. Even a revolution, although it would be best if it led to early elections. This is what it would look like in a democratic country, but we are in Georgia.

Okay, a revolution that will result from people not having anything to eat. This is a bit at odds with the mentality of the citizens of this country – you are generally ashamed of not having money.

That’s true. But when they finally drive us to the wall, like in 2003, we’ll take to the streets. We’re ashamed of the lack of money, we have systems of family or clan support that we use, but the fact that we don’t talk about poverty loudly doesn’t mean we feel comfortable and are happy with our lives. If the EU takes away our visas, which will mean a lack of work, society will quickly feel the poverty. That will be fuel for the fire.

Can we talk about an oligarchical system in Georgia?

No. We have one oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili. Yes, there are rich people, but they are pawns of his wealth. Bidzina allows people from his circle to earn money, but he has to know about it. Nothing happens without his decision. Big business can only be done under his control. This is also the answer to why there is so little foreign investment in Georgia. Only about 1.5 billion dollars, which is half as much as what our economic migrants send to the country. European companies are not keen to enter this market because they do not understand the unwritten rules. For example, that they have to come to an agreement with someone, to reach an agreement. There is no other way to do business, and the Minister of Economy does not give them any guarantees.

Who is part of this exclusive group that earns money in Georgia? Bidzina and his closest circle?

There is no evidence. However, I would like to tell you about a very well-developing business sphere in Georgia, which is however completely closed – cryptocurrency production. In 2018, we were in third place in the world, then we fell because other countries appeared. However, this is approximately 300-400 million dollars a year. A very serious business that can only be carried out on international electronic platforms. This means that Georgia exports this product. However, this is not visible in our trade. The question arises – where does this money go?

Is it drowning in someone’s pockets?

I don’t know. Theoretically, it turns out that all the cryptocurrency earned is still here, which is unlikely. So if it’s not there, then where is it? Maybe offshore? I don’t know. It’s not even known who owns the bitcoin farms.

It looks like Georgia is a great company that you can earn good money from if you’re in power.

That’s why they won’t just give it up. And that’s why it’s more convenient for them to associate with Russia or China, which doesn’t care about their hands, than with the broadly understood West and its institutes, independent press or non-governmental organizations like Transparent International.

Photo: civil.ge