Russia is accelerating the informational and psychological phase of its preparations for a potential future war with NATO, experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warn. Analysts point to a series of unusual statements issued by Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR), which in recent weeks has claimed that Ukraine is allegedly planning sabotage attacks in countries such as Poland, the United Kingdom, Serbia, and Moldova.
How is Russia preparing for war with NATO?
It began with drone incursions into NATO airspace. Now, cyberattacks, GPS interference, and disinformation campaigns are intensifying. By suggesting that upcoming acts of sabotage in EU countries are supposedly the work of Ukrainians, Russia seeks to instill fear among Europeans and weaken NATO’s resolve.
On October 6, Russia’s Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) claimed that London is planning attacks on European seaports to be carried out by a group of pro-Ukrainian Russians fighting on Kyiv’s side. According to the SVR, the saboteurs would claim they were acting on Moscow’s orders, while the UK allegedly plans to equip them with Chinese underwater equipment to further implicate Beijing.
The statement is part of a series of similar accusations targeting European states such as Poland, Moldova, and Serbia. “In recent weeks, the agency has been issuing such statements more frequently, which indicates a new, coordinated pattern of operations,” ISW experts report.
Read also: Negotiations with Russia. Peace as a Weapon of War – A Century of Russian Strategy [ANALYSIS]
The broad scope of these disinformation activities is intended to create the impression that the threat of violence is omnipresent across Europe. They serve Moscow’s goals both internationally and domestically, allowing the Kremlin not only to instill fear among EU citizens but also to weaken NATO’s determination to continue supporting Ukraine.
According to ISW, these actions aim to convince Ukraine’s allies that continued assistance to Kyiv could provoke Russian attacks. In the same vein, Moscow seeks to discourage European NATO members from strengthening their defenses—claiming that doing so would amount to an act of aggression against the Russian Federation. In reality, experts note, this strategy is designed solely to serve Russia’s interests.
The Kremlin’s use of accusations against countries such as the United Kingdom of conducting false-flag operations is aimed at changing Russians’ perception of the West by portraying Western actors – rather than Russia – as responsible for attacks or threats of carrying them out.
Russia has entered Phase Zero of war with NATO
According to ISW, this is the so-called “Phase Zero,” the stage of creating physical and psychological conditions for a potential war, and Russia appears to be conducting coordinated preparations as part of establishing these conditions for a possible future conflict.
In recent years, Russia has taken part in a series of overt and covert attacks against NATO countries, such as sabotage missions, electronic warfare interference, GPS jamming, and arson. Moscow has intensified these attacks in recent weeks since the fall of 2025. It began with drone incursions into NATO airspace and a disinformation campaign built around them.
This pattern of organized activity suggests that Russia has entered “Phase Zero” to move to a higher level of warfare.
Experts, however, see no evidence that the Kremlin is preparing for an immediate conflict. Instead, it is laying the groundwork for a future justification of aggression. At the same time, Russia is restructuring its military districts and expanding bases near the Finnish border.
Read too: The decolonization of Ukraine is underway. If Kiev wins, it will write its own history
Drones Over Europe. Is It Russia?
European security services continue to report sightings of unidentified drones in NATO airspace. On the night of October 5–6, Norwegian officials detected between three and five drones flying over Gardermoen Airport in Oslo. As a result, landings were halted and the airport was temporarily closed. Police have not yet confirmed who was behind the incident.
In Germany, similar events occurred at Munich Airport. Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Bavarian Premier Markus Söder suggested that Russia was responsible for the drone flights. According to them, the purpose could have been reconnaissance and spreading fear among the public.
The Kremlin denies the accusations. Dmitry Medvedev called the reports a “Ukrainian provocation” and warned that Europeans would soon “feel what war really means.” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described the allegations as “baseless,” while Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko claimed the drones were part of a “European military psychosis.”
Read also: Russia’s Next Target: Poland [OPINION]
What is PostPravda.Info?
PostPravda.Info is a project launched in February 2024 to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation. It was created by experts from Poland, Ukraine, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Lithuania. The project is funded by the international UA Future Foundation.
