Secret war of Russia against Europe [REPORT]

Over the past three years, the Russians have resorted to increasingly bold acts of sabotage and disinformation against Ukraine’s European allies, according to American journalists from the publication Foreign Policy. Their conclusions are based on a report prepared by researchers from Leiden University in the Netherlands. From 2022 to 2024, Moscow has increased the number of so-called “secret war” acts by sevenfold, including assassinations of European businessmen, attacks on European infrastructure, and even civilian airplanes in the United Kingdom. What else is the Kremlin doing that we are unaware of, and what is their goal?

The Secret War Becoming Open Last week

A member of the Russian State Duma, Oleksandr Kazakov, stated that the recent sabotage in the Baltic Sea was part of a military operation aimed at provoking NATO countries and expanding Russian control in the region.

Although events such as severed underwater cables draw media attention, there are no systematic efforts to assess the full scope and nature of Russia’s activities against Europe, says Prof. Bart Schurman, a specialist in terrorism and political violence at Leiden University in the Netherlands.

The university has analyzed how the Russians seek to weaken European countries to isolate Ukraine from the necessary support. Their research offers a unique insight into the potential of Russian actions that fall far short of nuclear attack. According to the researchers, this underscores the need for a coordinated and decisive European response, which has so far been lacking.

According to BBC commentators, this becomes even more important given that the U.S. may soon be less willing to guarantee Europe’s security and provide military aid to Ukraine. The countries of the Old Continent will have to fend off increasing Russian attacks, relying solely on their own military strength, the analysis concludes.

Russian Sabotage Methods

The Leiden University study reveals that while Moscow previously focused primarily on espionage and cyberattacks, the scope of its subversive activities has significantly expanded. Researchers have estimated—hypothetically, as such data is not readily available—that if there were six such operations in 2022, the number increased to 13 in 2023, and by 2024, it surged to 44.

The targets of these operations vary, from damaging or destroying critical underwater energy and communication infrastructure in the Baltic and North Seas to attacks on military bases, warehouses, and even arms factories.

Another common tactic employed by Russia involves influence operations targeting European politicians, aiming to undermine political support for Ukraine at both the European and national levels. A recent example is the scandal surrounding Voice of Europe, a radically pro-Russian media outlet that not only spread Kremlin propaganda but also funneled money to pro-Russian politicians in various European countries.

Assassinations, Social Media Recruitment, Bombs

There are also less sophisticated methods, such as numerous acts of vandalism designed to sow chaos and disrupt the daily lives of Europeans. These operations often involve a dual circle of perpetrators: criminal elements, typically recruited via social media platforms like Telegram, and masterminded by state intelligence agencies such as Russia’s GRU.

In 2024, the frequency and scope of these Russian operations significantly increased. This includes the assassination of a defected Russian pilot in Spain, an attack on German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall, and an attempt to involve a Polish citizen in an assassination plot against President Zelensky. In addition, explosives were placed on DHL planes, which could have resulted in catastrophic explosions mid-air. Fortunately, the detonation occurred on the ground—at warehouses in the UK and Germany.

According to some Western security experts, these attempted airplane attacks signal operations aimed ultimately at the United States. Nevertheless, this demonstrates that Russia is moving steadily toward committing acts of terrorism against other nations. For instance, GPS failures near Russia’s western borders and even drone attacks on civilian airports have been observed.

Moscow’s cruel disregard for human life is also evidenced by attacks on civilian airplanes—ranging from the Malaysian Boeing in 2014 to the shooting down of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane in December 2024. This underscores the very real threat to air traffic in Europe.

The Foreign Policy author argues that to fully comprehend and classify the escalation of Russian operations against Europe in 2024, the phenomenon must be viewed more broadly. One example provided by the researcher is the wave of over a thousand anonymous bomb threats in schools in the Czech Republic and Slovakia, which forced the suspension of classes for several days. He also mentions disruptions in water supply systems—unlike typical attacks on communication cables, such attacks pose a direct threat to the physical health and lives of Europeans.

Russia’s Secret War and Its Goals

All of this points to a new and dangerous phase of Russian actions against Europe, directly threatening the lives of Europeans.

According to an analysis presented in Foreign Policy, Russia has two main goals. First, it aims to undermine the willingness of European politicians and citizens to provide military aid to Ukraine. Second, it seeks to demonstrate how far it is willing to go in pursuit of its objectives.

So far, Russia’s actions have raised concerns, but both the consequences of Moscow’s moves and the response to them have been relatively limited. The greater danger lies in what the Kremlin might be willing to do in the future.

Up to now, discussions about the amount and type of aid for Ukraine, which Russia sees as a “red line,” have primarily focused on the threat of nuclear weapons. However, the findings from Leiden University show that the situation could unfold on a different level. We may see increasingly frequent attacks on civilian airplanes, sabotage of underwater infrastructure that could leave large parts of Europe without power or internet, assassinations of industrial leaders, or even disruptions in water supplies, which could threaten the health and lives of hundreds of thousands of European Union citizens.

In December 2024, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte warned Europeans that they must “shift to military thinking.” For a continent accustomed to peace, this will be a difficult but necessary step, American journalists assess. In their view, this is not only because Ukraine is slowly but systematically ceding territory to Russia, but also because the new U.S. administration, led by newly elected President Donald Trump, has already expressed skepticism about further aid to Ukraine and openly threatened to leave NATO allies on their own if they continue to fail in fulfilling their defense obligations and do not increase military spending.

Although the situation requires a swift response, Europe’s attention seems scattered, the report notes. Evidence presented by Dutch researchers suggests that Germany and France may be the most vulnerable to attacks. Russia had already been conducting intense propaganda campaigns against them even before the full-scale war in Ukraine began in 2022. Current actions in these countries are more focused on worsening their economic situation, deepening budget deficits, and inflaming political disputes. This, in turn, undermines their ability to keep the promises made to Ukraine. In the United Kingdom, a powerful European force, defense spending is being cut despite the challenging international situation.

Meanwhile, in the Netherlands and Poland, the internal debate for months has revolved around political twists and the fate of governing coalitions, issues with the opposition, or historical disputes with neighbors, thereby focusing attention primarily on internal political problems rather than the external threat.