USAID has temporarily suspended support for many sectors of the Ukrainian economy, which is already in trouble. The labor market is struggling due to a shortage of workers, as many are on the frontlines, some have died or been injured, others have left the country, and still others are afraid to go to work due to fear of mobilization. Additionally, there have been drastic tax increases that came into effect at the start of the new year. The lack of help from America, resulting in even fewer jobs and rising prices, could lead to 2025 being the year that, despite the Ukrainian army’s determination, the country collapses economically, making it impossible to continue the war.
On Saturday, January 25th, thousands of Ukrainians learned that Donald Trump and his administration had “fired” them. Why this metaphor? Because it was through the support of the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID) that billions of dollars flowed into many Ukrainian businesses and NGOs. For at least the next 90 days, not a cent will reach the bank accounts of medical units treating HIV, nor for veteran support programs in Vinnytsia, where 30,000 people are waiting for help. Free psychological support will no longer be provided by psychologists from the Free Choice Association in Kyiv.
Funds will also not reach many hospitals, power plants, regional administrations, the Ukrainian government for implementing programs, or other international organizations such as the WHO, the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), or UNICEF, which carried out many aid projects with USAID support. Few people talked about this because most organizations or politicians preferred to take credit for allocating large sums for humanitarian purposes, but a huge percentage of the money that kept Ukraine and its economy afloat in recent years came from USAID, from the United States.
USAID coordinates U.S. humanitarian aid worldwide. The Trump administration has ordered a 90-day suspension of all its projects to conduct an audit of the funds spent.
According to USAID, since the invasion began in February 2022, the United States has provided Ukraine with $2.6 billion in humanitarian aid, $5 billion in development support, and over $30 billion in direct budget support. According to a report prepared by the BBC, through USAID, the U.S. has provided the Ukrainian government with $22.9 billion for displaced persons and to pay officials providing critical services.
USAID a gospodarka Ukrainy
„Chcemy zakończyć wojnę w tym roku, ale nie tylko szybko, lecz sprawiedliwie” – powiedział Wołodymyr Zełenski na Światowym Forum Ekonomicznym w Davos. „Chcemy by Ukraińcy mogli bezpiecznie wrócić do domu, bezpiecznie mieszkać i pracować” – dodał prezydent Ukrainy.
Stara prawda, że armie wygrywają bitwy, a gospodarki wojny wydaje się jeszcze bardziej namacalne. Mimo, że Donald Trump nie zawiesił wsparcia militarnego dla Kijowa, to brak pieniędzy na wiele innych celów może okazać się kluczowy dla przyszłości kraju.
Przed wojną rosyjska gospodarka była 10 razy większa niż ukraińska. Jak mówił dla BBC prezes Narodowego banku Ukrainy Andrij Piszny „jeśli w 2021 r. wydatki budżetu państwa wyniosły 27,4% PKB, to w 2024 r. będzie to około 58%”. W pierwszych miesiącach wojny rząd w Kijowie próbował pokryć deficyt sprzedażą obligacji. Większość tych obligacji została zakupiona przez Narodowy Bank w celu emisji pieniądza. Efektem był spadek PKB o 29,1% i inflacja na poziomie 26,6% w 2022 roku.
Sytuacja ta zaczęła się stopniowo stabilizować dzięki regularnej pomocy międzynarodowej. Największym darczyńcą i inicjatorem pomocy były wówczas Stany Zjednoczone, a później Unia Europejska.
Według Ministerstwa Finansów w latach 2022-2024 Ukraina otrzymała od partnerów międzynarodowych ponad 115 miliardów dolarów. 45 miliardów dolarów pochodziło z UE, 31 miliardów z USA, a 12,4 miliarda z Międzynarodowego Funduszu Walutowego. Jeśli porównamy pomoc udzieloną Ukrainie z PKB krajów partnerskich, w pierwszej dziesiątce znajdą się kraje bałtyckie i skandynawskie oraz Polska. Na szczycie tak skonstruowanej listy jest Estonia.
According to data from the U.S. Department of State published at the end of 2024, since the start of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has received military assistance from the United States valued at nearly $61.1 billion. It is important to note that a significant portion of this money was spent on purchasing weapons from the United States itself.
While military aid helps Ukraine maintain the front line and protect the skies over major cities with anti-aircraft missiles, financial aid not only helps maintain financial stability and the foreign exchange market but also drives economic growth without which the country would not be able to function.
After a sharp decline in 2022, in 2023 Ukraine’s economy began to grow again, at a rate of 5.3%. In 2024, the growth slowed again, but not to a dramatic level, ranging between 3.4% and 3.6% according to various estimates. “Ukraine’s economy is holding up,” said Deputy Minister of Economy Andrii Teliupa recently. However, it should be clarified that it has only been holding up thanks to the financial support of allies. Without it, the currency and banking system would be at risk.
How much is the war in Ukraine costing?
According to the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, in 2024, defense spending from the state budget amounted to nearly 2.1 trillion hryvnias, or about $51.9 billion. This means that each day of the war cost the country an average of approximately 5.7 billion hryvnias, or $142 million.
In 2025, Ukraine planned to spend 2.2 trillion hryvnias on defense, which would account for more than a quarter of the country’s GDP. This would only be possible with continued foreign support. The head of the National Bank of Ukraine, Andriy Pyshny, stated that there is no risk of this plan failing. However, economists have a different opinion, and considering the actions taken by the new U.S. administration, everything could turn around 180 degrees. While 2025 should not bring significant drops, the year 2026 is highly uncertain, as there will be no money left by then.
A potential lifeline for Ukraine, which may soon be left to fend for itself, lies in Russia’s shaky economy. According to official data, inflation in Putin’s country is currently around 11%, but experts agree that the actual price increase is at least 25%.
At the end of November 2024, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, regarded as the main architect of Russia’s financial stability during the war, stated that nearly all available resources of the Russian economy have already been used. Economists expect Russia’s GDP to drop from 3.8% in 2024 to 1.4% in 2025. It is also worth noting that 6.3% of these funds would be allocated for military spending, the highest level since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Such a situation cannot continue for long.
