Andrij Veselowski: India, China, Russia and Ukraine. “Are there reasons for the war to continue” [COLUMN]

After winning the presidential election, Donald Trump has consistently demonstrated his intention to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. Obviously, this cannot be done without an agreement with China, one of the world’s largest powers, on which Russia is completely dependent. That is why analysts are now focused on US-China relations, but they forget that there is another country comparable in power to China – India.

It is the world’s largest nuclear power by population, with its own cosmic programm, the fifth largest economy in the world, an advanced country in the field of information technology, with a huge diaspora in the United States that plays an important role in American science and technology centers. However, political observers, analysts, and journalists ignore it. This may be because India has traditionally pursued a policy of neutrality and non-interference in other countries, but this does not make its position on the world stage any less important. This is understood by Ukrainian scholars from the National Institute for Strategic Studies and the Institute of Oriental Studies, who, after Donald Trump’s victory in the US election, initiated an online discussion with their Indian colleagues and partners from the Indian think tank Synergia Foundation (Bengaluru, Karnataka).

At the meeting, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to the Arab Republic of Egypt (2001-2005), the Republic of Sudan (2002-2005) and the Republic of Kenya (2002-2003), as well as Permanent Representative of Ukraine to the EU (2008-2010) Andriy Veselovsky proposed to expand the optics of India’s relations with Russia and Ukraine in the future, taking into account the policies to be implemented by the new US President. His Excellency presented an unbiased analysis of political interests, which should help India-Ukraine cooperation move from the realm of good wishes to the realm of pragmatism.  Now that Donald Trump has taken office, we can look again at his report, which he provided to PostPravda, to better understand what strategy we need to choose in the field of international cooperation.

Andriy Veselovsky. Looking through wider optics

In the middle of November, 2024 I was proposed to present a down-to-earth vision on the possible developments around the Russian-Ukrainian war of 2022-2024. I made a tough though realistic foresight which may happen or may not, significantly depending on us. Recently Donald Trump of the United States emboldened retired general Keith Kellog to be Assistant to the President and Special Envoy on Ukraine and Russia. Does it call for corrections to my previous conclusions?

Yes, to some degree. Unlike other pretenders to the position, such as diplomat Richard Grenell or some lawyer Epstein, the general is really tough and straightforward. He would be demanding towards Ukraine, which Kyiv has but to swallow, and he would be grueling towards Russia, which may irritate Putin, which, then, may irritate Trump, which, in the end, may provoke labelling Moscow the “Evil Empire” as President Reagan once coined, and press Russia to the end.

When back to our business, let me stress the evidence: India is an important global player, which may, collectively, with other mature states, work for the quickest termination of the hostilities and reach just settlement, punishing the aggressor Russia and rewarding the victim Ukraine.

The question is: why would India do it? What is her national interest – to fan the war, or to extinguish the war?

One may go indignant: war is a mortal sin! War ruins people’s lives and civilization!

One is right, still, wars exist, which means that they are profitable, and this Russian-Ukrainian one, too.

In fact, there are reasons to keep the war going and support Russia.

It is known that due to the international sanctions for the aggressive war Russia has to sell the export products with huge discounts, sometimes secretly. Big buyers of Russia’s oil, India in part, make money from it.

Being debilitated by the war, Moscow grudgingly opens the internal market to foreign goods and services, accepting rupees and yuan instead of US dollars.

India maintains traditional relations with Russia in the military field. She’s watching carefully how Russian armament works in the real war circumstances. The conclusion is obvious: one may pay less for it, it’s not as effective as the seller declares.

There are other examples of the kind

From the opposite, there are reasons to stop the war and make efforts to support Ukraine.

It’s a European country of 40 millions, with vibrant democracy, market economy and brave nationalist-minded people. Has a sizable muslim population, boasts several national and language minorities at the borders. Was a colony of an Empire for 350 years. Got independence 35 years ago. Looks like an India in a reduced size.

Quazy-member of the European Union, looking for NATO membership. Traditionally friendly to the Global South, India in particular.

Ukrainians have shown courage and ingenuity when confronting much bigger Russia. They invented drones as an armament. Having no boats, they reduced by half the Russian fleet in the Black Sea. There is a lot to learn if not buy from them in the military sphere.

One may also learn from them in science and technology. Some 40 thousand Indian students used to be the largest nation in the Ukrainian universities before the war. They felt safe and proud in Ukraine; no hatred, no chauvinism.

Ukrainian Black Sea ports provide the best access to the Indian goods for the Central Eastern Europe states. The biggest one in Odessa is that from where most of Ukrainian vegetable oil comes to India and most of the famous Indian tea arrives.

Reaching just peace in Ukraine means reducing the threat of war in the future for all. The case of Russian aggression, if goes unpunished, would provoke aggressive behaviour elsewhere. Why not try to carve a piece of a neighbor’s land if he is weaker? India knows well about attempts to cut her territory or to foment unfriendliness in neighboring States and Islands.

Last, but not least, Ukraine’s story would be incomplete without mentioning non-proliferation of the nuclear armament. India is a proud bulwark of that policy. One of the reasons why Russia dared to invade Ukraine was the rendition of the Ukrainian nuclear armament in 1995 and joining the NPT Treaty as a non-nuclear state. Many nations think heavily now about starting fabricating their own nuclear arsenal, to protect themselves, not like Ukraine did. To revert this dangerous trend one has to revert Russia back to her borders.

To be on the side of war, of aggressor, or to help the offended and restore justice, it’s a sovereign right of every nation. To support Ukraine means to invest in a more stable, predictable and just world. To stop Russia means not only to restart profitable diamond trade, but to prevent increasing hostilities, larger conflicts with global implications and, possibly, to push Moscow to rethink their fatal policy. India is too big and powerful to be shy.